资产评估
房地产房地产
    摘 要
     
    每个行业都有其自身特点的发展规律，作为关乎国计民生的房地产业也是如此。经过对其长期的研究发现，周期波动是房地产业发展过程中的内在规律。本文利用计量经济的VAR方法研究房地产价格波动的影响因素，寻找出影响房地产价格波动的内生和外生变量。通过观察这些变量的变化，正确地把握房地产行业的发展规律，同时结合我国社会经济发展情况、房地产市场发展现状和政府政策，分析了房地产业并购的可能性。本文通过选取2006年我国房地产上市公司前十强的四家公司，用财务分析的方法对它们与整体房地产行业水平进行比较，分析了行业中优胜劣汰的竞争规则更有助于实现资源优势互补，提高土地利用效率，增加行业的集中度。
    面对巨大的房地产业并购市场，作为并购活动重要组成部分的评估行业，也将迎来新的挑战，在行业的经济交易活动中将扮演着越来越重要的角色。本文针对房地产业并购的特点，提出了一些见解，以期能进一步完善评估的理论，更好地指导评估实践。 [英文摘要]：     ABSTRACT
     
    Each industry has a certain trend of movement. The real estate，which related to people's livelihood, has its own characteristics of the movement trend. After a long-term study, it was found that the movement of the real estate was in circulation. In the cycle of campaigns, the company's sustained and stable development will be affected if it is not consistent with the development of the industry, even be eliminated in the market.
    Researching the driving factors on the real estate prices by using econometric methods VAR, the writer finds out the endogenous and exogenous variables on real estate prices, and analyses the real estate industry cycle in further. By observing the activities of these variables, we properly grasp the industry trend of the movement. At the same time, in light of China's economic and social development, development of the real estate market and system of government policy, we analyze the possibility of a real estate acquisition. By selecting the four companies listed in The 2006 Top Ten China's real estate companies, with the financial analysis methods, we compare them with the overall level of the real estate industry and make the analysis of industry enterprises survival of the fittest competition rules, it will be more helpful in the realization of complementary resources and improves land-use efficiency and increasing the degree of polymerization of industries.
    As an important component of the assessment in the M&A activity, the evaluation industry will meet new challenges at the time of great real estate M&A market, and the economic transactions in the industry activities will play an increasingly important role. According to the characteristics of real estate acquisitions, I bring up some views, in the hope of a further development of the evaluation theory and a better guidance of asset appraisal practice.