国际经济学
环境经济学环境经济学
    改革开放三十多年来，中国的对外贸易获得了很大发展，使中国从一个相对封闭的经济体，逐渐转变成“世界工厂”。对外贸易，尤其是与发达国家的贸易对中国经济增长有拉动作用，但同时也对环境有一定的影响。这种影响究竟是有利还是有害？影响的途径如何？应该如何看待与应对？对这些问题的解答有利于我们形成正确客观的认识，并为贸易与环境的政策制定提供有益的参考。
    本文研究的基本问题为中国与OECD国家间典型的南北贸易对中国环境的影响。从环境库兹涅茨曲线理论、污染天堂假说等相关理论着手，利用1997-2007年29个省份省际面板数据，建立实证模型。为解决模型系统中变量的内生性问题，本文利用引力模型、要素积累模型构造相应的外生工具变量，结合面板数据单方程模型与联立模型系统，为相关理论的检验提供实证支持。
    本文共分六章：第一章集中阐述本文的选题背景及研究意义。第二章对环境经济学领域的相关理论做简要的探讨，厘清了相关理论的内在联系与相互作用。随后本文回顾了相关实证文献，提出本文的写作目的及意义。第三章分析中国的环境现状，并研究了中国与OECD国家的贸易往来情况，发现人均资源稀缺的中国，却有成为资源密集型产品净出口国的倾向。
    第四章为本文的实证部分，在实证检验之前对变量的内生性问题做了深入的探讨，利用引力模型等方法构造相应的外生工具变量，用以消除变量内生性的影响，提高实证结果的可信度，并找到环境库兹涅茨曲线与污染天堂假说成立的部分证据。第五章通过构建面板数据联立模型，对要素禀赋假说与污染天堂假说做进一步研究，验证了第四章污染天堂假说在中国成立的结论，同时认为要素禀赋假说在中国的适用性不强。第六章提出了相关政策建议，并展望了下一步研究的方向。
     [英文摘要]：     Since 1978, China has witnessed a huge progress in trade with other part of the world, and turned into “World Factory” from a closed economy. Opening to the world serves as a fuel to China’ economic growth, however, environmental problems come along. Figuring out the linkage between trade and environmental problems is of great theoretical and practical meanings to China.
    This paper focuses on the linkage between China’s environmental problems with openness to OECD countries. Following the logic of PHH and EKC theories, panel data of 29 provinces in China ranging from 1997-2007 is used to provide empirical tests of those theories. To solve endogeneity problems arise in the estimating system, we apply gravity model and factor accumulation model to create substitute variables.
    This paper consists of six chapters. Chapter one presents research background and significance of this paper. Chapter two explores relevant theories like EKC,PHH and et al in this field to find out the possible linkage between one another. Then a review of relevant papers is presented. Chapter three analyses China’s environmental status, and trade with OECD countries, only to find out that China have become net exporter of resource-intensive products while its resource per capita is way below the average of the world.
    In Chapter four , a thorough discussion of the endogeneity is provided before empirical tests,. Using substitute variables created via gravity model and factor accumulation model , we provide empirical results, evidence of EKC and that China is prone to a pollution heaven is found. A two-equation simultaneous model is established in chapter five to explore the linkage between PPH and FET, and we conclude that in a developing country like China, cost related to environmental regulations can’t be ignored.Chapter six brings out conclusions of this paper and casts a forward-look on the research may be carried out in the future.
     [参考文献]：     [1] Grossman, G.M., Krueger, A.B., 1995. Economic growth and the environment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, May, 353– 357.
    [2] Stern, D.I., Common, M.S., Barbier, E.B., 1996. Economic growth and environmental degradation: the environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development. World Development 24 (7), 1151– 1160.
    [3] Chichilnisky, C., 1994. North– South trade and the global environment. The American Economic Review 84, 851–874.
    [4] Copeland, B. R. and Taylor, M.S., “Trade, Growth and Environment” Journal of Economic Literature, 2004, 42, pp. 7–71.
    [5] Dean, J. (2002), “Does Trade Liberalization Harm the Environment? A New Test”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 35(4), 819-842.
    [6] Arrow, K., Bolin, B., Costanza, R., Dasgupta, P., Folke, C., Holling,C.S., Jansson, B.-O., Levin, S., Maler, K.-G., Perrings, C.,Pimental, D., 1995. Economic growth, carrying capacity and the environment. Ecological Economics 15 (2), 91– 95.
    [7] Theodore Panayotou. Globalization and Environment, CID Working Paper No. 53 Environment and Development Paper No.1. July 2000.
    [8] Shafik, Nemat, “Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An econometric analysis”, Oxford Economic Papers 46 (1994), 757-773.
    [9] Selden, T.M. and D. Song, “Environmental Quality and Development: Is there a Kuznets
    [10] Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27, (1994), p147-162.
    [11] Helpman, Elhanan. 1988, "Growth, Technological Progress, and Trade," National Bureau of Economic Research Reprint no. 1145. [1]Grossman, G.M., Krueger, A.B., 1991. Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, vol. 3914. NBER, Cambridge, MA.
    [12] Mani, M., Wheeler, D., 1998. In search of pollution havens? Dirty industry in the world economy, 1960–1995. Journal of Environment and Development 7 (3), 215– 247.
    [13] Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American
    Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June. 1999.
    [14] Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, "International Trade and the Environment: A Framework for Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 2001.
    [15] Werner Antweiler & Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, "Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 877-908, September. 2001.
    [16] Matthew A. Cole and Robert J. R. Elliott. Determine the trade-environment composition effect: the role of capital,labor and environmental regulations, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 46 (2003) 363–383,2002.
    [17] Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose. Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality, NBER Working Papers 9201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 2002.
    [18] Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K. "Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality," Working Paper Series rwp03-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. 2003.
    [19] Shanti Gamper-Rabindran and Shreyasi Jha, Environmental Impact of India’ Trade Liberalization, JEL Classifications: F14, F18, F21, O53, O24, Q56 .Working Paper Series, 2004.
    [20] Matthew A. Cole. Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages. Ecological Economics Volume 48, Issue 1, Pages 71-81. January 2004
    [21] Matthew A. Cole, Robert J.R. Elliott and Shanshan Wu. Industrial Characteristics, Environmental Regulations and Air Pollution in a Developing Country: An Analysis of the Chinese Manufacturing Sector, Cambridge University Press,2005.
    [22] Fumiko Takeda and Katsumi Matsuura. Trade and the Environment in Latin America: Examining the Linkage with the USA , Economics Bulletin.2005
    [23] Glen Peters, Christopher Weber, Jingru Liu。Consturction of Chinese Energy and Emissions Inventory. Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) Industrial Ecology Programme (IndEcol) .2006
    [24] World Bank, 2007, Development and the Environment, World Development Report (Oxford University Press: NY).
    
    [25] 任保平．低成本经济发展的制度阐释[M]．北京：中国社会科学出版社,2003．
    [26] 王小鲁,樊纲主编的《中国经济增长的可持续性—跨世纪的回顾与展望》,经济科学出版社出版,2001年。
    [27] 张连众,等贸易自由化对我国环境污染的影响分析[J].南开经济研究,2003,(3)
    [28] 张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004,(10) .
    [29] 彭水军、包群,2006：《经济增长与环境污染：基于面板数据的联立方程估计》,《世界经济》第11期。
    [30] 中国国家统计局,1998-2008：《中国统计年鉴》,中国统计出版社。
    [31] 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会,1998-2006：《中国环境年鉴》, 中国环境科学出版社。1998-2006年。
    [32] 林毅夫. 自生能力、经济转型与新古典经济学的反思,经济研究[J], 2002(4)。