数量经济学
应用计量经济学应用计量经济学
    目前区域经济增长已经成为我国经济发展主旋律的趋势日益加强，而且越来越成为国家经济增长点和支撑点，区域经济增长业已成为了经济增长中的一个重要课题。特别是，在我国加入WTO后，经济发展空间的区域组合成为我国经济加入世界经济体系并发挥重要作用的客观需要，更是我国经济体制变革的内在要求。区域经济增长的差异性是区域经济增长的一个重要表现，是客观存在的重要特征；趋同性是区域发展协作的表现，区域整体优势的一个动因所在。通过这两方面的考察，能够有助于地探索出区域经济的发展模式。泛珠江三角洲地区作为我国改革开放的前沿地带，区域一体化较为发达，整体优势和核心城市发展优势较为突出。本文以泛珠江三角洲区域经济增长作为研究对象。
    本文首先从理论角度出发，以实证分析为关键，对泛珠江三角洲的区域经济增长进行了较为全面的考察和分析。本文的组织结构如下：第一章对研究的意义和目的进行说明，综述区域经济问题特别是经济增长差异和趋同性方面的研究状况；第二章对泛珠江三角洲经济发展状况进行了简要回顾；第三章对泛珠江三角洲区域经济增长的差异性进行了度量和实证分析，从多个角度考察了区域经济增长的差异性，包括要素和经济结构的差异；第四章考察分析了泛珠江三角洲区域经济增长的趋同性，在论述区域经济增长趋同性检验方法的基础上，对该区域经济增长的趋同性进行了实证分析，并从计量分析方法对经济增长率进行了动态分析。
    实证结果表明，泛珠江三角洲区域经济增长存在阶段性变化的差异性，并从增长要素和经济结构差异进行解析；同时，本区域经济增长还存在了一定程度的趋同性（或者收敛性），但是，实证结果表明，不存在绝对收敛性（ 、 -收敛性），也不存在条件收敛性，却出现了某些俱乐部收敛特征；并且小区域经济增长存在一个长期均衡的协整关系。 [英文摘要]：     At present, the trend that the regional economic growth has already become the theme 、the point and the support of china economic growth is more strengthened. Regional economic growth has become one important subject of economic growth already. Especially, after the joint of the WTO, the combinations of economic development space is the impersonal necessary to Chinese integration into and play an important role in the world economic system, it is even the inherent requirement of the innovation on the china economic system. The diversity is an important representation and character that existing objectively of the regional economic growth; Convergence is the other characters of the development cooperate, and the feature of area predominance. The investigation of these two respects will contribute to explore the development model of the regional economy. As the front area of the reformation and opening, The Pan-Pearl River Delta has developed comparatively in the integrated region, while the whole and the key city's development advantage are comparatively outstanding. In this text, the regional economic growth of the Pan-Pearl River Delta is the research object.
    This paper proceeds from theory angle firstly; demonstration analysis is one of the cores, having carried on comprehensive investigation and analysis to the regional economic growth of the Pan-Pearl River Delta. The framework as follows: Chapter 1 show the meanings and purposes of the studying, and the research state in the regional economic growth, especially the diversities and convergence; Chapter 2 reviewed briefly the economic development of the Pan-Pearl River Delta; Chapter 3 scaled and demonstrated the diversities of the regional economic growth in the Pan-Pearl River Delta; Investigated the diversities of the regional economic growth from the factors and economic structure; Chapter 4 analyzed the convergence of the regional economic growth in the Pan-Pearl River Delta, and dynamically analysis on the economic growth rate of the areas.
    The results of the analysis indicate: The Pan-Pearl River Delta’s economic growth reveals some staggered diversities, and analysis from the difference in the factors production and economic structure; At the same time, there are some extent convergence of regional economic growth. While the result shows it doesn’t exit absolute convergence and conditional convergence, but exiting club convergence. The micro-regional economic growth occur the long-term equilibrium co-integrated.