无线寻呼业务是电信运营业的一个子业务，也是我国最早开放的电信业务，在我国迅速发展后在短短的数年年内迅速衰退，生命周期远低于国际同行的水平，也大大出乎人们的意料，本文就其原因进行深入地研究和分析，主要从需求和文化等角度进行研究，发现中国电信运营业特有的规律，并结合当前电信运营业热点问题进行研究，希望能为电信业的健康发展有所借鉴和帮助。
    

本文的结构如下：
    

第一章：从电信运营业各项业务介绍入手，比较了几个业务的概念及它们之间的关系，阐述的电信业在信息产业和国民经济中的重要地位和作用，并介绍寻呼业在全球和中国的发展历程。
    

第二章：从用户需求的角度分析，对寻呼和移动电话的收入弹性进行分析，对移动电话和无线市话及无线寻呼在不同的国民收入和技术条件下在满足人们的需求方面的变化进行深入分析。发现不同业务在早期是互补产品，但随经济和技术发展，演变成替代品。
    

第三章：从产品周期规律角度分析，利用波特的“五种竞争力”理论分析寻呼业的状况，阐述了一方面主要因为寻呼行业本身因为过度竞争和移动电话的替代作用，另一方面在产业链发生变化时，寻呼运营商对寻呼产业链的管理失败导致寻呼业的再度崛起的失败。
    

第四章：从宏观角度分析寻呼业衰退的原因。首先因为中国电信改革重组的原因造成主导企业没有充足的资金进行技术创新，寻呼信息化转变关键时候，所依托的股票市场发生严重下滑，导致市场需求严重下滑，引发寻呼行业大衰退。其此，中国（东方）消费文化的出现，在国民收入不高、普及率不高的情况下，身份象征的需求被移动电话取代。
    

第五章：以寻呼业发展历程为鉴，对固定电话、第三代（3G）移动电话发展进行分析。阐述了移动电话取代固定电话与以前移动电话取代寻呼具有相似的原因和发展趋势，并从全球五大洲的发展趋势来验证。从用户需求、电信运营需求、国家战略发展需求三个方面进行论述，表明第三代移动电话在近期取代第二代移动电话是我国电信业发展的必然。同时从中国用户需求方面和电信行业规模经济特征方面入手，阐述第三代移动电话牌照发放以三张最为理想。
     [英文摘要]：     Paging business is a branch of telecom business， it is the first open telecom service in our country.
    After developing rapid， it declined within several years， its lifecycle is shorter than other one in international country and out of people’s surprise. The thesis researches and analyzes deeply the reasons， point of request and culture view， to find the rule of china telecom operation. Combined with researching hot problem at present in telecom field， I wish the thesis can help and offer some reference to the field.
    The thesis composed of five chapters.
    In the chapter 1， introduced the business line of telecom first， compare several concepts of businesses  and the relation of each other. Expatiated on important status and action in information industry and domestic economy. Introduced the development of paging industry in china and other countries.
    In the chapter 2， at the view of customers request， analyzed the income elasticity of paging industry and mobile phone under the different condition of technical or income level， we can know that the different industry are supplement for each other at forepart， but evolved as substitutes with the development of economy and technology.
    In the chapter 3， at the product lifecycle， analyzed the actuality of paging industry with Poter’s five compete strength， expatiated the reasons are both the overage compete in paging industry and the mobile phone edge out. And another reason is， when industry chain has changed， the telecom company was defeated on management result in the filed defeated on next grow up.
    In the chapter 4， analyzed the reasons at the macro view. The first reason is the reform of china telecom company lead to the main company has no enough capital to innovate in technology， and stock market as the key market declined seriously， result in the paging industry declined seriously. Symbol of identity urged people used mobile phone replaced the paging.
    In chapter 5， used for reference of paging industry development， analyzed the development of wire phone industry and 3rd generation mobile phone industry. Expatiated the mobile phone would replace the wire phone as the mobile phone replace the paging ever， and validated with global market. Use the request of customers， telecom company and national strategy to show that the 2nd generation mobile phone must be replace by 3rd generation. According to the customers request and the feature of telecom industry， the license of 3rd generation is three is better.